The Global Food Crisis: more evidence

The research coming from the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) this month reflects previous concerns I’ve made in earlier articles[1],[2],[3],[4],[5] about the relationships of biofuels and commodities market speculation with food prices and the mechanisms driving these prices upward. Although the evidence doesn’t unequivocally confirm these concerns, this NECSI research paper is a stepping stone toward a general theory of what I’d like to call “ecodynamics”: namely, the study of the interactions of capital flows with natural resources. The abstract of the paper summarizes the fundamental argumentative thread which is worthy of peer-reviewed investigation:

In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fi t the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, inclusive. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion.

Timothy A. Wise (director of the Research and Policy Program at the Global Development and Environment Institute — Tufts University) posted this very informative article on his “Triple Crisis” weblog (6 March 2012) regarding the NECSI data and food price model. A year earlier, he wrote another succinct piece on food price volatility that initially captured my interest and led me to the NECSI paper mentioned above.

Black & Veatch’s 2011 Electric Utility Survey

Water supply and effluent water management dominate top safety concerns.

Black & Veatch’s Strategic Directions in the Electric Utility Industry asked 700 executives from the U.S. electric utility industry about their take on the future ranging from utility pricing to electric vehicles to nuclear power and water issues. (via greentechmedia)

Some important poll results:
– When polled on whether “energy/commodity prices will rise significantly,” 70% of respondents said they “Very strongly agree or agree.”
– On electric utilities’ top safety concerns, water and nuclear waste disposal ranked #1 and #2 respectively.
– When asked to rank top technology and environmental concerns, “water management becomes the most significant environmental issue” ranked #1. This was above energy storage (#2), scrubbers and carbon sequestration (#3), biofuels (#7), bloom box (#8). See above chart.

Saleh, al-Ahmar, Arcadia Petroleum and the Civil War in Yemen

Anti-government protesters shout slogans while holding a defaced portrait of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh during a demonstration demanding his ouster in Sanaa June 4, 2011.

As the violence in Yemen continues to escalate and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) probe reveals more about Arcadia Petroleum’s role in securing oil contracts in Yemen, one cannot help but wonder if there exists a more than just tenuous connection between the two high-profile events.

Bitter tensions between Saleh supporters and his defectors–the Al-Ahmar, Hashed, and Sanha camps–have fueled Yemen’s political crisis:

The CFTC’s recent allegations that Arcadia colluded with Yemeni multibillionaire Hamid al-Ahmar in order to receive uncompetitive oil bids coincides with the fomenting civil conflict in Yemen. A leaked September 2009 State Department cable says that:

an internal government shift in control over the country’s valuable oil exports, meant to open up oil bidding to more international buyers, threatened Arcadia’s sway over Yemen’s exports.

It also put at risk an alliance between Arcadia and its “local agent” in Yemen, tribal leader Hamid al-Ahmar, the cable says. Arcadia, in an interview, denied the allegations in the cable, saying it did not employ al-Ahmar as an agent, although it did work with some of his companies in the oil trading business. The company said it always paid official market prices for Yemen’s export oil.

But even if there might be no real relation whatsoever with Saleh’s refusal to relinquish his power and the “internal government shift in control” of the country’s oil resources, the international community cannot ignore the growing humanitarian crisis in Yemen as violence escalates, water resources deplete, and oil revenue remains misappropriated.

Solar Under The Sun

Solar II attendee shows Solar I attendees the technical aspects of the solar-powered water system

Last week I spent some time in Little Rock, AR, attending the Solar Under the Sun (SUTS) training session at Camp Ferncliff. SUTS trains and equips volunteers to be build effective and successful community-oriented solar-powered water purification systems. As a crash course on solar PV installation I was quite impressed with the level of expertise demon- strated by the teachers as well as their commitment to helping those most in need in the world. Nearly all of the trainers had experience in-country working on solar projects or had professional engineering degrees. SUTS is a volunteer-run organization of Presbyterian Church members from Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana and is partnered with other international programs such as Living Waters for the World and the Haiti Education Foundation. And although I’m not the most religious or church-going individual, I was thoroughly inspired by the dedication and commitment of everyone who attended.

From Sept. 9 until Sept. 12, attendees engaged in community building and teamwork exercises, cultural sensitivity workshops, technical training, and partnership modeling. The entire session was broken into two groups of attendees: Solar I (which focused on the community partnership models) and Solar II (which focused on the technical side of designing and building the systems). I bunched with the Solar II folks. In addition to learning the “blackboard” essentials of solar PV installation and the mechanics of water filtration, we built disconnector boxes (i.e. the heart of the system) that would be sent to Haiti. The hands-on learning was a huge plus for me.

Solar II attendees put together disconnector boxes from scratch

(From left to right) Tim, George, Grimsley, and Charles putting some last-minute touches to their disconnector box

Solar II team showing off the product of their labor

Camp Ferncliff had many amenities and the staff was very hospitable. Each training session cost about $500 and covers room, boarding, showers, linens, and three meals a day. The camp even had a solar-powered buggy that you could ride!

On-site solar-powered shuttle

I felt a bit out of place when I first arrived since I figured I might be the youngest of the crowd and maybe the only brown kid. But there was one person actually from Haiti who had been sponsored by SUTS and the Haiti Education Foundation to attend, and another woman from Kenya studying disaster management at Oklahoma State. All together, everyone was welcoming enough to break the ice.

Solar II trainer Jerry Goode wrapping up the camp during the final plenary

By the end of the camp, other than feeling drawn by a higher sense of urgency and duty to assisting those living in the direst of conditions in the world, I felt humbled by a renewed sense of purpose being more thoroughly immersed in nature. As the world turns, we as human beings are merely a footnote in the annals of nature’s history, yet recognizing our interconnectedness with the world, to one another, and with those living on the margins of  global society are fundamental steps toward working for a future in which humankind can live in balance with the world and with each other.

You can find more pics from the training session on my photobucket site.