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   Three Prisoners
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   Author  Topic: Three Prisoners  (Read 527 times)
ThudnBlunder
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Three Prisoners  
« on: May 5th, 2003, 12:21pm »
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Three prisoners on Death Row are told that two of them have been chosen at random for execution the next day, and that the other one is to be granted a pardon. One prisoner, having worked out that his chance of survival is 1/3, privately begs the warden to tell him if he will be executed - but the warden refuses. As at least one of the other two prisoners is sure to be executed, he then asks the warden to name one of them. The warden relents and whispers "Ursole will be executed." This makes the inquisitive prisoner very happy - as he reasons that, because he is now one of only two remaining prisoners at risk, his chance of survival has risen from 1/3 to 1/2.  
 
Is he right to feel happy?  
« Last Edit: May 5th, 2003, 1:02pm by ThudnBlunder » IP Logged

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maryl
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Re: Three Prisoners  
« Reply #1 on: May 5th, 2003, 12:44pm »
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Reminds me of a game show.
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ThudnBlunder
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Re: Three Prisoners  
« Reply #2 on: May 5th, 2003, 12:48pm »
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A shrewd observation, maryl.
« Last Edit: May 5th, 2003, 12:50pm by ThudnBlunder » IP Logged

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jon_G
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Re: Three Prisoners  
« Reply #3 on: May 5th, 2003, 2:11pm »
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Well, at least he can sleep at night knowing his odds, but maybe for just that night. Wink
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