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Topic: Economics: other topics (Read 4963 times) |
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towr
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #25 on: Oct 7th, 2009, 2:24pm » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 11:23am, BenVitale wrote:Indeed, emergent phenomena often have a life of their own that is separate and distinct from
the behaviors of their constituent parts. |
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Only in as much as you cannot predict the emergent behaviour from the behaviour of the constituent parts. But it is still fully, utterly, and totally determined by it.
Of course that's nothing remarkable, you can have computer algorithms that have results that cannot be predicted except by doing the equivalent of running the program. (Which gives rise to the halting problem.)
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #26 on: Oct 7th, 2009, 2:31pm » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 2:15pm, towr wrote:
Thanks for the youtube file, I'll go and check it out.
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No, I'm not sure. The theory says so.
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Just because it has been shown that it can do so in theory doesn't mean it does so often in practice. I only know of a few cases where it has been objectively verified that closing off a piece of road increased traffic flow; and I'm not even sure that wasn't because people knew about it and there were less travelers because of it.
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I can comment on this. I need to reflect on this.
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #27 on: Oct 7th, 2009, 2:32pm » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 2:24pm, towr wrote:
Only in as much as you cannot predict the emergent behaviour from the behaviour of the constituent parts. But it is still fully, utterly, and totally determined by it.
Of course that's nothing remarkable, you can have computer algorithms that have results that cannot be predicted except by doing the equivalent of running the program. (Which gives rise to the halting problem.) |
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Okay, but from Game theory perspective, it is hard... I still don't get it.
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towr
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #28 on: Oct 7th, 2009, 2:57pm » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 2:31pm, BenVitale wrote:| No, I'm not sure. The theory says so. |
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The theory says it can happen. I don't think it says it does happen often in the real world.
That makes an important difference when you want to translate theory to practice.
on Oct 7th, 2009, 2:32pm, BenVitale wrote:| Okay, but from Game theory perspective, it is hard... I still don't get it. |
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Multiple agents and emergent behaviour quickly makes a situation too complex to analyze with game theory. Just determining the payoffs of strategies is hard enough, let alone find out the equilibriums. It's more easily approached with population simulations, I would say. (Although it's not as definite.)
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| « Last Edit: Oct 7th, 2009, 3:04pm by towr » |
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #29 on: Oct 7th, 2009, 3:52pm » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 2:57pm, towr wrote:
The theory says it can happen. I don't think it says it does happen often in the real world.
That makes an important difference when you want to translate theory to practice. |
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I'll go and check on what the theory says.
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Multiple agents and emergent behaviour quickly makes a situation too complex to analyze with game theory. Just determining the payoffs of strategies is hard enough, let alone find out the equilibriums. It's more easily approached with population simulations, I would say. (Although it's not as definite.) |
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I'll explore this on what-if simulation...in the classroom it's much easier. I was told that this is a new field.
In a simulation each participant is a virtual person making decisions based on his preferences and on what the others (or what he thinks other might do) ... these modelings can capture reality.
And on a related topic:
Autopia : MIT Hopes to Exorcise Phantom Traffic Jams
Traffic Modeling - Phantom Traffic Jams and Traveling Jamitons
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towr
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #30 on: Oct 8th, 2009, 12:51am » |
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on Oct 7th, 2009, 3:52pm, BenVitale wrote:| I'll explore this on what-if simulation...in the classroom it's much easier. I was told that this is a new field. |
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Depends on what you compare it to, and how you demarcate the field. Population simulations have been around a while, agent based simulations are a bit more recent. Cheap computation makes it easier to do more complex modeling.
Quote:| In a simulation each participant is a virtual person making decisions based on his preferences and on what the others (or what he thinks other might do) ... these modelings can capture reality. |
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They try to. Reality is complex though. It's easy to forget to incorporate some significant variable in a model.
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #31 on: Oct 15th, 2009, 4:59pm » |
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I've just come across a study : Most men don't wash after the toilet
British study finds people more likely to soap up if they're being watched
People are more likely to wash their hands properly after using the toilet if they are shamed
into it or think they are being watched, scientists say.
when prompted by an electronic message flashing up on a board asking: "Is the person next to you washing with soap?," around 12% more men and 11% more women used soap...
The researchers also noted "intriguing differences" in the behavior of men and women: While women responded to simple reminders, men tended to react best to messages that invoked disgust, such as "Don't take the loo with you wash with soap," or "Soap it off or eat it later."
Intriguing, indeed! How to explain that?
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #32 on: Oct 16th, 2009, 9:20pm » |
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Check this file: behavior change theory
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #33 on: Oct 17th, 2009, 10:06am » |
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Here's another example of behavorial modification/change :
Youtube : Piano stairs - Rolighetsteorin.se - The fun theory
It is a viral video from Volkswagen Sweden. They installed piano stairs next to an escalator
The goal is to improve decisions about health ... to encourage behavior that is good for both individuals and societies.
They believe that the easiest way to change people's behavior for the better is by making it fun to do.
They call it The fun theory. See Here
They ask: Can we get more people to choose the stairs by making it fun to do?
They claim : 66% more people than normal chose the stairs over the escalator.
Fun can obviously change behavior for the better.
See also The Fun Theory: Volkswagen Masters the Viral Video
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towr
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #34 on: Oct 17th, 2009, 10:55am » |
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on Oct 17th, 2009, 10:06am, BenVitale wrote:| They claim : 66% more people than normal chose the stairs over the escalator. |
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I think the novelty would soon wear off. And when the regular commuters start to find it annoying, they may even start to avoid the stairs.
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #35 on: Oct 19th, 2009, 12:43am » |
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In the British study "Wash your hands, you're being watched," both men and women are more likely to wash their hands properly after using the toilet because they feel they're being watched.
Were motivated too often by a sense of guilt, fear, or regret.
Experts who study behavior change agree that long-lasting change is most likely when its self-motivated and rooted in positive thinking
on Oct 17th, 2009, 10:55am, towr wrote:
I think the novelty would soon wear off. And when the regular commuters start to find it annoying, they may even start to avoid the stairs. |
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I agree with you.
It's clever, cute, but I'm skeptic that this will bring any permanent behavorial change.
What about if we introduce 'fun'? Here comes the 'piano stairs' experiment:
In the second experiment, the people know that they're being watched.
What would would happen if there are no cameras?
What if someone were to fall down those stairs and decided to drop a lawsuit?
What if you were to find this almost everywhere?
Making healthy changes is easier said than done. Even when were strongly motivated, adopting a new, healthy habit or breaking an old, bad one is not easy.
Childhood obesity is on the up in Sweden especially in girls. The Swedes are puzzled by an unusual blip in the data: little girls are more likely to be fat than little boys.
I wonder whether they had the self-perception theory in mind.
According to this theory, people pay more attention to the incentive, and less attention to the enjoyment and satisfaction that they receive from performing the activity.
But according to a new animal study, obesity may be hard-wired into the brain from birth :
Read this article
And, Obesity Starts In The Head?
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| « Last Edit: Oct 19th, 2009, 12:58am by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #36 on: Oct 21st, 2009, 3:54pm » |
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There is growing concern in developed countries, especially in the U.S., about the increase in consumption of fats and sugar, and the related increase in obesity.
Should we impose a 'sin tax' on on foods that contain high quantities of saturated fat in the hope of cutting down consumption of these foods?
How about a sin tax on soda and other sugary beverages?
According to the Law of Demand, a tax on saturated fat/soda and other sugary beverages would raise the price of these products, and thereby would reduce their consumption.
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #37 on: Oct 22nd, 2009, 12:51am » |
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on Oct 21st, 2009, 3:54pm, BenVitale wrote:| According to the Law of Demand, a tax on saturated fat/soda and other sugary beverages would raise the price of these products, and thereby would reduce their consumption. |
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That's not necessarily true, raising the price may raise the apparent value and desirability, and thus increase sales and consumption. We do not live in a world of perfect information and populated by homo economicus.
Price affects perception. A $40 wine tastes better than a $10 wine, even if it's the same wine from the same bottle.
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #38 on: Oct 22nd, 2009, 3:07pm » |
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on Oct 22nd, 2009, 12:51am, towr wrote:
That's not necessarily true, raising the price may raise the apparent value and desirability, and thus increase sales and consumption. We do not live in a world of perfect information and populated by homo economicus. |
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Right. The theory doesn't always reflect what's happening in the real world. I shall reflect on this 'tax' and come back later to it.
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Price affects perception. A $40 wine tastes better than a $10 wine, even if it's the same wine from the same bottle. |
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| « Last Edit: Oct 22nd, 2009, 3:13pm by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #39 on: Oct 23rd, 2009, 12:18am » |
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on Oct 22nd, 2009, 12:51am, towr wrote:
Price affects perception... |
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That reminds an article I read:
In a blind tasting, it turns out that most of us actually prefer to drink cheaper wine, as long as we dont know its cheap wine.
Antonio Rangel, an associate professor of economics at Caltech, and his colleagues found that changes in the stated price of a sampled wine influenced not only how good volunteers thought it tasted, but the activity of a brain region that is involved in our experience of pleasure. In other words, "prices, by themselves, affect activity in an area of the brain that is thought to encode the experienced pleasantness of an experience
Read more at : Wine Study Shows Price Influences Perception
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #40 on: Oct 23rd, 2009, 12:29am » |
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And it also reminds me of a story I read in Dan Ariely's book; fortunately, parts of his book are available on the net.
Here's the link: The Fallacy of Supply and Demand
After analyzing his data, he found that the digits from the social security numbers serve as anchors
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| « Last Edit: Oct 23rd, 2009, 12:31am by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #41 on: Oct 23rd, 2009, 1:40am » |
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on Oct 23rd, 2009, 12:29am, BenVitale wrote:And it also reminds me of a story I read in Dan Ariely's book; fortunately, parts of his book are available on the net.
Here's the link: The Fallacy of Supply and Demand
After analyzing his data, he found that the digits from the social security numbers serve as anchors |
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That wouldn't work on me; well, not with those items. I don't like wine, I don't like cordless input devices (trackball, keyboard, mouse). The only thing I might have bid on was the design book. But I wouldn't without checking on the internet what it costs.
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #42 on: Oct 24th, 2009, 8:57pm » |
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As for dealing with the problem of obesity, we could either ....
(a) do nothing, and leave people alone to decide their own size
(b) tax overweight and obese people: people would submit an official Body Mass Index (BMI) report with their annual tax return
(c) impose a tax on junk food
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| « Last Edit: Oct 24th, 2009, 8:57pm by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #43 on: Oct 25th, 2009, 4:34am » |
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on Oct 24th, 2009, 8:57pm, BenVitale wrote:As for dealing with the problem of obesity, we could either ....
(a) do nothing, and leave people alone to decide their own size
(b) tax overweight and obese people: people would submit an official Body Mass Index (BMI) report with their annual tax return
(c) impose a tax on junk food |
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(d) Apportion healthcare and other resources based on BMI - I imagine being obese drives up the cost of health insurance...
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #44 on: Oct 25th, 2009, 8:39am » |
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(e) shoot them and let "natural" selection take care of it
(It's my solution for everything. No people = no problems.  )
But perhaps a positive approach, rewarding people for a better lifestyle and making it more easily available to them, might be a better approach. Insurance companies might pay their customers back a part of their premium every time they go to the gym, or for eating healthier food.
Btw, BMI isn't a very good measure of how healthy someone's lifestyle is. Muscles weigh more than fat, so a healthier and slimmer person may have the same BMI as a fatter unhealthy person.
You can't condense "health" into a single number. You wouldn't combine you car's mileage, speed and petrol level into one number, would you? It may simplify the dashboard but it'd be useless.
on Oct 25th, 2009, 4:34am, rmsgrey wrote:| I imagine being obese drives up the cost of health insurance... |
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It's always hard to say, because they also die younger. Same with smokers.
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Benny
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #45 on: Oct 25th, 2009, 11:08am » |
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on Oct 25th, 2009, 8:39am, towr wrote:(e) shoot them and let "natural" selection take care of it
(It's my solution for everything. No people = no problems. )[/url]
Harsh .... but funny
Muscles weigh more than fat, so a healthier and slimmer person may have the same BMI as a fatter unhealthy person.
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Right. I've just read an article that says that Muscular people are often misclassifed as overweight or obese ... that it is a lousy statistical tool.
In wikipedia, BMI is a controversial statistical measurement
it does not actually measure the percentage of body fat ... but still used to identify weight problems within a population
BMI is still the measurement of choice for most health professionals
Some researchers now argue in the following article
Is a Heavier America Healthier? Weighing the Evidence
that it is a flawed and overly reductive measure, and it is skewing the results of research in public health.
So how do we now measure 'fatness'?
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| « Last Edit: Oct 25th, 2009, 11:10am by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #46 on: Oct 25th, 2009, 11:36am » |
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on Oct 25th, 2009, 11:08am, BenVitale wrote:| So how do we now measure 'fatness'? |
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An accurate way would be to measure the actual fat percentage people have; but that's not a very easy measurement to take. A less accurate measure would be to measure how thick the layer of subdermal fat is, by pulling a fold of skin in your side and putting a set of calipers to it.
The major problem with the latter measure is that you don't measure the fat around your organs, even though this has the bigger impact on your health. And the two types of fatty tissue are not necessarily correlated.
I suppose you could also do an MRI scan; I think it can distinguish the types of tissue, and a computer program could calculate the volume of fat, and you'd also be able to see where in the body it is.
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #47 on: Oct 26th, 2009, 1:42pm » |
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I wonder how practical and economical this method is?
We need to find and implement an easy and cheap tool to modify behavior.
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #48 on: Oct 26th, 2009, 1:49pm » |
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Previously, I posted...
(a) do nothing, and leave people alone to decide their own size
(b) tax overweight and obese people
(c) impose a tax on junk food
We could tax bad behavior, or subsidize good behavior. So, I add...
(d) A fitness tax credit for children and adults.
That is to say, a non-refundable tax credit based on eligible fitness expenses paid by parents to register a child in a prescribed program of physical activity ... The children's fitness tax credit would let parents claim up to $X per year for eligible fitness expenses paid for each child who is under 16 years of age at the beginning of the year in which the expenses are paid.
and disability tax credit, if eligible, under the age of 18
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AN ADULT FITNESS TAX CREDIT
--- To be continued ---
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| « Last Edit: Oct 26th, 2009, 1:54pm by Benny » |
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Re: Economics: other topics
« Reply #49 on: Oct 26th, 2009, 1:53pm » |
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(a) to do nothing is not an acceptable option as the health care costs associated with obesity now rival those attributable to smoking, according to a new study... Federal statistics show that more than half of Americans are obese or overweight, and that number has grown dramatically over the last decade. Researchers say the obesity epidemic poses a major threat to public health due to the clear association between obesity and a variety of chronic diseases...
Read more ... http://www.webmd.com/diet/news/20030515/obesity-costs-rival-smoking
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