By Taylor Desy
Armenia is at a crossroads in the complicated arena of international relations, promoting a nuanced shift in its foreign policy under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s leadership. Moscow’s refusal to intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh war is a pivotal moment, compelling Armenia to reconsider its past relationships and forge a route that emphasizes both security and sovereignty.
Armenia, a country with closed borders and historical grievances between two enemies, Turkey and Azerbaijan, has always relied on Russia for security and protection [1]. As the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh progressed, revealing the boundaries of Armenia’s alliance with Russia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Pashinyan took advantage of the opportunity to address his country in a televised speech, acknowledging the limitations of Armenia’s affiliation with Russia through the CSTO.
The quick attack by Azerbaijan, claiming complete authority over Nagorno-Karabakh, exposed the CSTO’s shortcomings [2]. Pashinyan admitted openly that these mechanisms, as well as the broader Armenian-Russian military-political collaboration, were insufficient to defend Armenia’s foreign security. It was a declaration of the necessity for a major shift in Armenia’s approach to security, prioritizing practicality and results over historical allegiances.
One of the most noticeable aspects of Armenia’s rebalanced foreign policy is their request to join the International Criminal Court (ICC). Pashinyan’s request for ICC membership is more than just a formality. It is a strategic adjustment of Armenia’s diplomatic stockpile. With its jurisdiction to investigate war crimes, the ICC offers Armenia a forum to draw attention to alleged instances, particularly Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conduct in Ukraine. This action demonstrates Armenia’s commitment to pursue justice and responsibility on the global platform.
However, this daring step has not been without consequences. The previously cordial relationship between Armenia and Russia has come under examination, with Moscow expressing strong resentment. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Armenia of “adding fuel to the fire” with its public comments. Russian official television analysts joined the uproar, criticizing Pashinyan and other Armenian leaders for criticizing Moscow. The strained connections highlight the delicate nature of geopolitical realignments and the difficulties that states encounter while striving to impose their autonomous foreign policy.
In a speech, Pashinyan explained that Armenia’s intention to join the ICC was not a direct challenge to CSTO or Russia. He cast the action as a strategic necessity rather than an outright confrontation, framing it as Armenia’s sovereign right to safeguard its external security. The prime minister ended his speech by urging respect for Armenia’s sovereignty, emphasizing that the decision was made in the best interests of the country [3]. After Pashinyan’s declaration, independent political expert Beniamin Matevosyan provided insight into the possible motivations for the move. Pashinyan’s actions, according to Matevosyan, were a premeditated attempt to exacerbate tensions with Russia. The expert pointed to the presence of Nagorno-Karabakh supporters and those with ties to the region in the recent protests in Armenia [4].
Pashinyan’s diplomatic maneuvering is complicated by the interplay of historical allegiances and the aspirations of a part of the population as it navigates this foreign policy tilt. Armenia finds itself at a crossroads, combining the imperatives of essential relationships with the urge to protect its sovereignty. Armenia is challenged by the region’s changing dynamics and intricacies of historical links. Pashinyan’s administration must step carefully in pursuit of a rebalanced foreign policy, taking into account the potential ramifications of regional politics.
The realignment is about more than just getting away from Russia. Armenia is strategically important on the global stage. Pashinyan’s government understands geopolitical realities and acknowledges the importance of diverse coalitions in efficiently securing Armenia’s interests. This pragmatic approach deviates from the historical norm, realizing that a one-size-fits-all alliance may not handle Armenia’s varied difficulties in the present geopolitical scene. Protests in response to Pashinyan’s decision highlight the internal differences and complications that develop when a country redefines its geopolitical standing. The participation of Nagorno-Karabakh supporters adds an emotional and historical depth to the protests, exposing Armenia’s complicated tapestry of identities and loyalties. Pashinyan’s administration would have to sensitively handle these internal dynamics while directing the country through this foreign policy rebalancing.
Finally, Armenia’s foreign policy turn, reflected by its decision to join the ICC and rethink its security partnerships, marks a watershed moment in the country’s history. Pashinyan’s administration is entering unfamiliar territory, recognizing the limitations of past ties and embracing a strategic approach. The path ahead is difficult, but Armenia’s rebalancing indicates a determination to protect its interests on the world arena while maintaining the delicate balance of regional partnerships.
Works Cited
- Zolyan, Mikayel. “Defeated Armenia Looks to a New, Post-Russia Foreign …” Carnegie Politika, November 27, 2023. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91121.
- Wilson, Josh. “Armenia’s Foreign Policy and Security Issues for 2023.” GeoHistory, March 17, 2023. https://geohistory.today/armenias-foreign-policy-and-security-issues/.
- Harutyunyan, Mariam. “Armenia PM Signals Foreign Policy Shift Away from Russia.” The Moscow Times, September 24, 2023. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/09/24/armenia-pm-signals-foreign-policy-shift-away-from-russia-a82549.
- Le Monde with AFP. “Armenia PM Signals Foreign Policy Shift Away from Russia.” Le Monde.fr, September 24, 2023. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/24/armenia-pm-signals-foreign-policy-shift-away-from-russia_6139059_4.html.
Photo Credit: USAID U.S. Agency for International Development, Administrator Power and Prime Minister Pashinyan have a meeting, September 25, 2023, https://flic.kr/p/2p65tBY.
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