``` wu :: forums (http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~wwu/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.cgi) riddles >> medium >> More heads than tails (Message started by: THUDandBLUNDER on Nov 11th, 2003, 8:40pm) ``` Title: More heads than tails Post by THUDandBLUNDER on Nov 11th, 2003, 8:40pm You flip a fair two-sided coin until you have either n more heads than tails or m more tails than heads. What is the expected average number of flips that you willl need?// title modified by wwu july 27 2004 Title: Re: More Coin Tossing Post by towr on Nov 12th, 2003, 1:54pm ::[hide]I might be mistaken, but is this a very difficult way to do a very simple operation??[/hide]::[e][hide]the following recursion holds, and conveniently fits with the solution I was thinking of.e(n,0) = 0e(0,m) = 0e(n,m) = 1/2 (e(n-1, m+1) + e(n+1, m-1)) +1  (when n>0, m>0)[/hide][/e] Title: Re: More Coin Tossing Post by william wu on Jul 27th, 2004, 4:41am You can think of this as simply a random walk on the integers, with increments of +1 and -1. Let heads correspond to +1 and tails correspond to -1. At each time step 1,2,.... a random variable Xi is generated, equally likely to be either +1 or -1. Then our random walk corresponds to the cumulative sum of these variables:Sn = S0 + [sum]i=1 to n Xiwhere S0 is the initial position.We then want to know the expected time till this walk hits either n or -m. To do this, we can set up a recursion. The underlying principle is that after you have moved somewhere, the problem of computing the remaining expected hitting time is just like the problem you started with, except that the initial position S0 has changed.Let T be the random variable denoting the time till either level n or level -m is hit. Then we want to find E[T].Let h(k) = E(T | S0 = k). Then, finishing what towr started, we have the recursionh(k) = 0.5 h(k-1) + 0.5 h(k+1) + 1 with boundary conditions0 = h(n) = h(-m).To solve this recurrence quickly, consider the discrete forward difference operator[smiley=cdelta.gif]h(k-1) = h(k) - h(k-1)Invoking the operator twice on h(k-1) then yields[smiley=cdelta.gif]2 h(k-1) = h(k+1) - 2h(k) + h(k-1)Note that is highly resemblant of our original recurrence equation. In fact we can now express the recurrence as -1 = (1/2) [smiley=cdelta.gif]2 h(k-1) Thus the function h has a constant second difference.  This suggests a quadratic expression for h, with the highest-order coefficient scaled by [smiley=cdelta.gif]2 h(k-1) / 2 = -1. By also considering the boundary conditions 0 = h(n) = h(-m), we make the educated guess h(k) = -(k - n)(k + m) whose correctness can be verified by substitution into the original recurrence.Now recall that h(k) = expected hitting time given that the initial position is k. Thus our final answer is very, very elegant:h(0) = -(0 - n)(0 + m) = nm.  (SWEET!) Powered by YaBB 1 Gold - SP 1.4! Forum software copyright © 2000-2004 Yet another Bulletin Board